Persona 03 — Priya, single renter saving for first home

Profile

• Age: 29
• Occupation: Marketing manager (employee)
• Annual taxable income: $98,000
• Housing: rents a 1-bedroom in Newtown, Sydney; pays $620/week ($32,240/yr).
• Savings: $48,000 in a high-interest savings account; aiming to buy in 2-3 years.
• Investments: $12k of ETFs in a CHESS-sponsored brokerage.

Their universe of policies

• Theme 04 §4.1 — Personal income tax
• Theme 04 §4.2.3 — Negative gearing limited to new builds
• Theme 04 §4.2.1 — CGT indexation
• Theme 02 §2.3 — Local Infrastructure Fund + CRA
• Theme 03 §3.6 — Housing supply

Scenarios

Scenario A — Tax cuts strengthen the deposit savings

• Policy: §4.1.1 bracket cuts + §4.1.2 WATO + §4.1.3 instant deduction.
• Source: tax-explainers-new-tax-cuts-workers.docx — Treasury table for $100k income shows $2,447 saving in 2026-27, $2,965 from 2027-28, up to $3,285 with the full $1,000 instant deduction.
• Mechanic: The full saving channels into her deposit savings — ~$3,000/yr extra means ~$8-9k of additional deposit by the time she's ready to buy in 3 years.

Scenario B — More homes get built where she's looking

• Policy: Theme 02 §2.3 — $2B Local Infrastructure Fund, Theme 03 §3.6 — Housing supply.
• Source: budget-overview-2026-27.docx, factsheet-productivity.docx.
• Mechanic: $2B for water, power, sewerage, roads to unlock up to 65,000 new homes over the decade. National Construction Code modernisation; tradies get free access to building standards (saves up to $1,600/yr).

Scenario C — She's competing with fewer investors

• Policy: §4.2.3 and §4.2.1.
• Source: tax-explainers-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax.docx.
• Mechanic: Treasury modelling: reforms shift the owner-occupier share of the housing market, adding ~75,000 owner-occupiers over 10 years (≈10 years of declining ownership reversed). House price growth slowed by ~2% over a couple of years vs no policy change. Around 230,000 taxfilers per year historically buy a negatively-geared property — a portion of those investors will exit the established-property auction market she's in.

Scenario D — Rent moves slightly

• Policy: §4.2.3.
• Mechanic: Treasury expects <$2/week rent rise on the median rent due to the negative-gearing changes. For Priya at $620/week current rent, this is not material. She is above the CRA threshold so the CRA uplift doesn't apply.

Scenario E — Her ETFs under the new CGT regime (if she holds beyond 1 July 2027)

• Policy: §4.2.1 — CPI indexation replaces 50% discount, plus 30% minimum tax on real gains.
• Source: tax-explainers-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax.docx.
• Mechanic (Treasury "Zoe" cameo, but for Priya): Bought $12,000 of ETFs in 2024 at $0 cost-base shift. Pre 1 July 2027 gains: 50% discount continues. Post 1 July 2027 gains: indexed cost base used. With current 32% marginal rate (which becomes 30% from 1 July 2026), she's already at the 30% minimum so the minimum tax has no extra impact — only the indexation (ie. discount) calculation matters. Worked example: at average ASX growth of 4.3% over 10y, indexation would have given 56% effective discount (vs 50%) → slightly less tax under the new regime.

Bottom-line annual impact

Calculator settings

Open calculator/index.html:

• Income: $98,000 work
• WRE: $1,000 (use instant deduction)
• Investments tab: $12,000 ETF position; assume 4.3% nominal growth, 2.5% inflation; toggle "Sale year" through 2030, 2032, 2035 to see how holding into the new regime changes liability.